Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | STO -110 LAF -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | STO -14.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -7.9 (-3.9) | 143.2 (+0.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -8.5 (-4.5) | 140.7 (+3.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -9.4 (-5.4) | 141.5 (+2.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -7.7 (-3.7) | 144.1 (-0.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | STO 70 – 65 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-15 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#264) | -13.0 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#358) | -2.82 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.09 (#360) | -4.76 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#314) | 0.377 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 12.4% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.5% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 60.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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