Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -450 NORF +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -5.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -6.8 (-9.8) | 142.9 (+8.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -5.8 (-8.8) | 142.0 (+9.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -5.6 (-8.6) | 143.2 (+7.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -5.8 (-8.8) | 142.7 (+8.3) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-3 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#134) | 0.6 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#92) | 0.32 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#108) | 0.29 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#114) | 0.512 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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