Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -200 LEM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +19 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -4.9 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -3.9 (+15.1) | 143.1 (+13.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -3.0 (+16.0) | 142.1 (+14.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -3.7 (+15.3) | 141.4 (+15.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -4.6 (+14.4) | 142.1 (+14.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2025 | LEM 74 – 68 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 4-12 |
| Home | 6-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 81.4 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#306) | -9.1 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#253) | -1.14 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#287) | -1.64 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#280) | 0.447 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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