Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LEM -135 NIA +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -4.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -0.3 (+5.7) | 134.4 (+7.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -1.9 (+4.1) | 134.2 (+7.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -2.0 (+4.0) | 134.6 (+7.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -1.1 (+7.1) | 133.6 (+8.4) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | NIA 88 – 69 LEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-15 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-12 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#254) | -1.7 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#290) | 0.33 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#291) | -0.06 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.373 (#312) | 0.454 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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