Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MINN -20000 MORG +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +22 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MINN -19.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -17.7 (+4.3) | 143.8 (+14.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MINN -18.4 (+3.6) | 145.0 (+13.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -16.9 (+5.1) | 146.1 (+11.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -16.7 (+5.3) | 145.0 (+13.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-7 |
| Home | 10-9 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#156) | -14.8 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#155) | -3.04 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#142) | -3.72 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#205) | 0.332 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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