I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Williams Arena · December 29, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MINN -22.5 Away covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money MINN -20000 / MORG +3000
Model Predictions
Spread Total MINN win
Actual MINN +22 158 Won
Massey MINN -19.1 (+2.9)
Massey Totals 144.5 (+13.5)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML MINN -17.7 (+4.3) 143.8 (+14.2) 89%
Efficiency Plus ML MINN -18.4 (+3.6) 145.0 (+13.0) 89%
Baseline Tuned ML MINN -16.9 (+5.1) 146.1 (+11.9) 89%
Baseline ML MINN -16.7 (+5.3) 145.0 (+13.0) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MINN MORG
Overall 15-17 14-18
Conference 7-13 7-7
Home 10-9 11-4
Away 5-5 2-13
Neutral 0-3 1-1
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 68.1 76.2
Avg Pts Against 69.7 82.8
Massey -0.0 (#156) -14.8 (#353)
Bradley-Terry 0.20 (#155) -3.04 (#349)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.41 (#142) -3.72 (#344)
RPI 0.479 (#205) 0.332 (#361)
Shooting & Four Factors MINN MORG
FG% 43.8% 46.4%
3PT% 28.7% 27.8%
REB / G 33.8 34.5
OREB / G 10.1 11.4
AST / TO 1.51 0.87
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.0% 49.1%
TOV% 16.1% 18.8%
ORB% 29.0% 31.2%
FT Rate 21.8% 19.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 56.4%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 16.0%
DRB% 70.1% 67.8%
Opp FT Rate 19.2% 32.4%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.