Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -4000 LONG +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +16 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -19.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -19.2 (-3.2) | 151.1 (+28.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -16.6 (-0.6) | 152.5 (+27.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -17.6 (-1.6) | 150.9 (+29.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -18.2 (-2.2) | 149.5 (+30.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#34) | -1.0 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#30) | 0.25 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#33) | 0.16 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#45) | 0.475 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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