Betting Lines
| Spread | TEM -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TEM -2000 BUF +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEM +20 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | TEM -16.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEM -13.9 (+6.1) | 147.5 (+14.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEM -12.8 (+7.2) | 149.6 (+12.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEM -12.9 (+7.1) | 146.5 (+15.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEM -14.3 (+5.7) | 145.6 (+16.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#127) | -10.2 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#128) | -1.35 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#135) | -2.54 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#98) | 0.462 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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