Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -550 FAMU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -4.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -2.3 (+7.7) | 130.9 (-0.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TAR -4.0 (+6.0) | 134.3 (-4.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TAR -2.4 (+7.6) | 130.8 (-0.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -3.4 (+6.6) | 132.9 (-2.9) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | TAR 78 – 54 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 9-3 |
| Away | 1-14 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.2 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#343) | -12.2 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#302) | -0.60 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.67 (#325) | -0.93 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#237) | 0.517 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 27.7 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.44 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 29.3% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 61.1% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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