Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -100000 PENN +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +20 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -32.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -28.1 (-8.1) | 144.7 (+7.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -23.0 (-3.0) | 148.8 (+3.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -24.3 (-4.3) | 145.4 (+6.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -27.6 (-7.6) | 145.2 (+6.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 4-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#21) | -11.7 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#57) | -1.81 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#55) | -2.41 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#49) | 0.400 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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