Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -100000 NWST +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +24 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -20.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -21.8 (+2.2) | 139.9 (-9.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -22.1 (+1.9) | 139.0 (-9.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -21.1 (+2.9) | 141.2 (-11.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -21.8 (+2.2) | 141.5 (-11.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#31) | -2.5 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#65) | -0.58 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#64) | -0.40 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#126) | 0.510 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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