Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -10000 TOL +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +19 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -20.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -18.1 (+0.9) | 150.6 (-3.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -15.9 (+3.1) | 151.5 (-4.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -17.8 (+1.2) | 151.5 (-4.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -19.3 (-0.3) | 152.1 (-5.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 81.1 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#37) | -3.1 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#26) | 0.10 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.66 (#29) | -0.31 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.657 (#9) | 0.495 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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