Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -39.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +53 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -40.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -36.0 (+17.0) | 151.4 (+29.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -28.3 (+24.7) | 155.4 (+25.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -24.8 (+28.2) | 149.0 (+32.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -35.2 (+17.8) | 148.5 (+32.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2020 | ILL 97 – 38 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 3-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#9) | -17.4 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#32) | -3.46 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#24) | -4.74 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#42) | 0.400 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 35.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 45.3 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 40.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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