Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -43.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +59 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -42.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -34.8 (+24.2) | 151.5 (-16.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -25.0 (+34.0) | 150.9 (-15.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | ILL 117 – 64 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 0-9 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 0-0 |
| Home | 11-2 | 0-0 |
| Away | 9-3 | 0-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 55.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 88.7 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#2) | -7.7 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#22) | -1.06 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#19) | -1.60 (#76) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 58.7% | 35.1% |
| 3PT% | 54.8% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 62.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 20.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.07 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 70.0% | 38.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 60.6% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 89.4% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 41.7% |
Game Analysis
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