Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Lloyd Noble Center · December 29, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread OU -29.5 Away covered
O/U 161.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total OU win
Actual OU +22 156 Won
Massey OU -27.0 (-5.0)
Massey Totals 168.7 (-12.7)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML OU -28.6 (-6.6) 162.2 (-6.2) 91%
Efficiency Plus ML OU -25.1 (-3.1) 161.5 (-5.5) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML OU -24.0 (-2.0) 159.2 (-3.2) 91%
Baseline ML OU -26.9 (-4.9) 158.8 (-2.8) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings OU PV
Overall 20-14 5-27
Conference 6-12 4-14
Home 12-5 3-7
Away 2-7 2-19
Neutral 6-2 0-1
Last 5 5-0 0-5
Streak L2 L4
Avg Pts For 78.3 70.2
Avg Pts Against 74.6 82.2
Massey 11.1 (#48) -11.6 (#341)
Bradley-Terry 4.09 (#5) -3.09 (#351)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.46 (#6) -4.17 (#352)
RPI 0.603 (#36) 0.406 (#327)
Shooting & Four Factors OU PV
FG% 47.9% 42.0%
3PT% 37.1% 32.3%
REB / G 34.3 27.5
OREB / G 9.9 9.3
AST / TO 1.36 1.04
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.2% 47.3%
TOV% 16.1% 15.6%
ORB% 30.7% 24.0%
FT Rate 28.3% 26.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.1% 60.2%
Opp TOV% 21.3% 18.2%
DRB% 68.0% 55.9%
Opp FT Rate 20.4% 31.8%

Game Analysis

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