We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
40–9 on winners spread MAE 9.4 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marquette @ Dayton +1.0 150.1 47% 63–71 ✓
Green Bay @ UC Santa Barbara +14.5 149.2 89% 66–83 ✓
San Diego @ Fresno State +5.7 142.5 71% 65–73 ✓
Drexel @ UAlbany +2.8 144.1 61% 77–70 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Mount St. Mary's +6.3 142.3 72% 77–69 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Davidson +9.3 148.8 82% 51–86 ✓
Radford @ Utah +14.2 144.4 86% 63–81 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Liberty +21.7 143.7 91% 74–83 ✓
VCU @ Colorado State -4.4 136.9 33% 76–68 ✓
Gonzaga @ UConn -2.5 146.9 35% 71–77 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma +7.9 150.6 79% 65–80 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Eastern Kentucky +9.3 140.7 83% 66–81 ✓
Bowling Green @ Kansas City +1.9 139.1 56% 77–85 ✓
Creighton @ Alabama +12.3 159.7 87% 75–83 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Boise State -0.7 141.2 46% 65–67 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Loyola Marymount +12.1 153.0 87% 75–76 ✓
Wyoming @ BYU +12.2 140.2 86% 49–68 ✓
Cal Poly @ San José State +1.8 151.7 56% 100–107 ✓
Texas Southern @ Nevada +19.0 142.9 90% 73–105 ✓
UC Davis @ Sacramento State -2.0 132.5 34% 69–62 ✓
Pacific @ UNLV +8.3 139.0 80% 65–72 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Hawai'i +2.4 147.1 57% 62–71 ✓
South Alabama @ East Texas A&M -3.3 135.4 32% 81–72 ✓
Temple @ Hofstra +4.4 142.4 70% 60–42 ✗
Navy @ Virginia Tech +11.2 139.4 85% 72–80 ✓
Omaha @ Iowa State +23.8 147.5 91% 51–83 ✓
Northeastern @ Old Dominion -9.0 140.6 17% 75–71 ✓
Norfolk State @ Northern Kentucky -0.6 136.1 44% 62–71 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Rhode Island +11.3 138.0 85% 69–77 ✓
Akron @ Milwaukee +0.9 154.2 51% 81–100 ✓
UIC @ Little Rock +4.1 140.1 71% 77–69 ✗
Campbell @ Morgan State -6.8 144.3 20% 76–86 ✗
Vermont @ Colgate +2.0 128.3 56% 60–65 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Chattanooga +16.3 148.9 88% 63–85 ✓
Chicago State @ Mercer +14.9 149.2 88% 63–75 ✓
Western Michigan @ North Dakota State +10.9 144.6 83% 62–98 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Eastern Michigan -3.2 148.0 42% 99–76 ✓
Presbyterian @ Miami +6.7 143.1 73% 75–94 ✓
New Orleans @ Iowa +20.1 154.9 90% 57–104 ✓
UTSA @ North Dakota +1.6 148.3 55% 95–85 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas +24.8 162.4 91% 57–121 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Northwestern +8.9 135.2 80% 60–71 ✓
Stonehill @ Boston College +5.0 140.4 68% 69–73 ✓
Denver @ Cal State Fullerton +3.6 137.0 63% 59–74 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Kent State +15.0 129.1 87% 57–82 ✓
Saint Louis @ Illinois State +4.6 149.4 67% 77–81 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Oregon +18.3 135.4 90% 61–79 ✓
Arkansas State @ UAB -0.9 148.2 43% 98–89 ✓
San Francisco @ Loyola Chicago -1.2 138.5 53% 76–66 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.