Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | KC -155 BGSU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | KC -2.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -1.8 (+6.2) | 140.9 (+21.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -1.9 (+6.1) | 139.5 (+22.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -1.9 (+6.1) | 139.1 (+22.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -2.6 (+5.4) | 140.1 (+21.9) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | BGSU 79 – 69 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#298) | -5.7 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#329) | -1.60 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#319) | -2.86 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.379 (#341) | 0.384 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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