Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -115 MARQ -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -3.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -0.2 (+8.2) | 145.4 (-11.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -1.0 (+7.0) | 150.1 (-16.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -0.9 (+7.1) | 151.1 (-17.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -1.2 (+6.8) | 150.1 (-16.1) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | DAY 77 – 71 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#44) | 18.9 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#55) | 3.95 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#34) | 5.73 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#90) | 0.683 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.99 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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