Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | DAV -1700 DETM +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +35 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -11.4 (+23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -10.9 (+24.1) | 151.2 (-14.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -10.6 (+24.4) | 149.1 (-12.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -9.3 (+25.7) | 148.8 (-11.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -13.5 (+21.5) | 147.6 (-10.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-16 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#150) | -6.4 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#85) | -0.40 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#82) | -1.17 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#101) | 0.503 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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