Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -175 NORF +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -1.9 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -0.7 (+9.7) | 135.4 (-2.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -0.4 (+9.4) | 137.2 (-4.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -0.6 (+9.6) | 136.1 (-3.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -0.4 (+9.4) | 136.5 (-3.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-3 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#252) | 1.5 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#311) | 0.53 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#316) | 0.76 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#239) | 0.533 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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