Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Stan Sheriff Center · December 15, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread HAW -5.5 Home covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money HAW -250 / AMCC +210
Model Predictions
Spread Total HAW win
Actual HAW +9 133 Won
Massey HAW -0.5 (+8.5)
Massey Totals 153.0 (-20.0)
Bradley-Terry 81%
Weighted B-T 81%
Baseline Plus ML HAW -2.2 (+6.8) 148.1 (-15.1) 53%
Baseline ML HAW -1.3 (+7.7) 147.9 (-14.9) 52%
Baseline Tuned ML HAW -2.4 (+6.6) 147.1 (-14.1) 57%
Efficiency Plus ML HAW -2.6 (+6.4) 145.9 (-12.9) 61%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HAW AMCC
Overall 15-16 20-14
Conference 7-13 12-8
Home 13-7 15-2
Away 2-9 4-10
Neutral 0-0 1-2
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 69.3 72.5
Avg Pts Against 71.9 70.1
Massey -2.5 (#206) 1.4 (#141)
Bradley-Terry -0.69 (#237) -1.29 (#285)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.88 (#233) -1.40 (#258)
RPI 0.440 (#275) 0.395 (#327)
Shooting & Four Factors HAW AMCC
FG% 46.6% 50.5%
3PT% 29.7% 35.7%
REB / G 35.0 34.0
OREB / G 10.0 10.6
AST / TO 0.85 1.25
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.0% 55.9%
TOV% 19.6% 17.7%
ORB% 32.4% 32.1%
FT Rate 31.2% 23.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.2% 50.4%
Opp TOV% 12.2% 20.2%
DRB% 76.9% 65.2%
Opp FT Rate 35.2% 29.4%

Game Analysis

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