Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -250 AMCC +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -0.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -2.2 (+6.8) | 148.1 (-15.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -1.3 (+7.7) | 147.9 (-14.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -2.4 (+6.6) | 147.1 (-14.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -2.6 (+6.4) | 145.9 (-12.9) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#206) | 1.4 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#237) | -1.29 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#233) | -1.40 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#275) | 0.395 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.2% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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