Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -35.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +32 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -30.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -27.5 (+4.5) | 147.7 (-13.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -27.5 (+4.5) | 148.7 (-14.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -23.8 (+8.2) | 147.5 (-13.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -26.4 (+5.6) | 146.9 (-12.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 19.9 (#7) | -5.8 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.93 (#6) | -1.44 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.06 (#3) | -2.05 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#26) | 0.402 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.89 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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