Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LR -140 UIC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | LR -5.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -5.2 (-13.2) | 141.2 (+4.8) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -4.3 (-12.3) | 140.4 (+5.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -4.1 (-12.1) | 140.1 (+5.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -3.1 (-11.1) | 139.4 (+6.6) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | UIC 86 – 71 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#241) | -5.1 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#132) | -0.67 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#132) | -1.13 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#154) | 0.475 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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