I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Lawlor Events Center · December 15, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread NEV -21.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money NEV -10000 / TXSO +2500
Model Predictions
Spread Total NEV win
Actual NEV +32 178 Won
Massey NEV -22.9 (+9.1)
Massey Totals 141.6 (+36.4)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML NEV -21.4 (+10.6) 141.9 (+36.1) 90%
Baseline ML NEV -20.4 (+11.6) 143.1 (+34.9) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML NEV -19.0 (+13.0) 142.9 (+35.1) 90%
Efficiency Plus ML NEV -22.0 (+10.0) 141.8 (+36.2) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NEV TXSO
Overall 17-16 15-17
Conference 8-12 12-6
Home 11-6 9-4
Away 3-8 6-12
Neutral 3-2 0-1
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.3 70.4
Avg Pts Against 68.1 72.4
Massey 10.1 (#53) -8.5 (#310)
Bradley-Terry 1.41 (#72) -2.44 (#339)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.01 (#74) -3.59 (#347)
RPI 0.612 (#35) 0.423 (#301)
Shooting & Four Factors NEV TXSO
FG% 49.4% 39.0%
3PT% 40.3% 30.6%
REB / G 34.5 34.3
OREB / G 9.1 11.3
AST / TO 1.40 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.7% 43.8%
TOV% 16.3% 18.1%
ORB% 30.0% 28.6%
FT Rate 27.6% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.2% 54.0%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 15.8%
DRB% 70.8% 62.4%
Opp FT Rate 24.9% 31.0%

Game Analysis

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