Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -10000 TXSO +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +32 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -22.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+36.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -21.4 (+10.6) | 141.9 (+36.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -20.4 (+11.6) | 143.1 (+34.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -19.0 (+13.0) | 142.9 (+35.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -22.0 (+10.0) | 141.8 (+36.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#53) | -8.5 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#72) | -2.44 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#74) | -3.59 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#35) | 0.423 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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