Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ORE -10000 SFA +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -22.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -19.0 (-1.0) | 134.9 (+5.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -18.6 (-0.6) | 133.3 (+6.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -18.3 (-0.3) | 135.4 (+4.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -18.7 (-0.7) | 134.4 (+5.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#23) | -3.6 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.77 (#7) | -1.13 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.38 (#8) | -1.48 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.712 (#3) | 0.445 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 26.6% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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