Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV -950 PAC +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -10.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -9.6 (-2.6) | 137.9 (-0.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -8.5 (-1.5) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -8.3 (-1.3) | 139.0 (-2.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -13.7 (-6.7) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-5 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#139) | -5.0 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#162) | -1.17 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#151) | -1.35 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#159) | 0.445 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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