Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | LIB -5000 NCAT +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -25.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -24.9 (-15.9) | 144.2 (+12.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -24.4 (-15.4) | 143.3 (+13.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -21.7 (-12.7) | 143.7 (+13.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -20.8 (-11.8) | 145.2 (+11.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 9-2 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#54) | -10.7 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#37) | -2.31 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#42) | -3.17 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#48) | 0.387 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.3% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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