Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MER -2500 CHST +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MER -18.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -13.3 (-1.3) | 151.2 (-13.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -14.3 (-2.3) | 150.7 (-12.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -14.9 (-2.9) | 149.2 (-11.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -13.7 (-1.7) | 153.0 (-15.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2023 | MER 66 – 61 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-12 |
| Home | 7-6 | 3-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#244) | -18.3 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#205) | -3.32 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#242) | -4.62 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#218) | 0.423 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 34.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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