They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
Hawkins Arena · December 15, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MER -15.5 Away covered
O/U 151.5 Under
Money MER -2500 / CHST +1100
Model Predictions
Spread Total MER win
Actual MER +12 138 Won
Massey MER -18.4 (-6.4)
Massey Totals 158.0 (-20.0)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML MER -13.3 (-1.3) 151.2 (-13.2) 88%
Baseline ML MER -14.3 (-2.3) 150.7 (-12.7) 88%
Baseline Tuned ML MER -14.9 (-2.9) 149.2 (-11.2) 88%
Efficiency Plus ML MER -13.7 (-1.7) 153.0 (-15.0) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 10, 2023 MER 6661 CHST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MER CHST
Overall 14-19 4-28
Conference 6-12 4-12
Home 7-6 3-7
Away 5-11 1-19
Neutral 2-2 0-2
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L1 L8
Avg Pts For 73.7 62.5
Avg Pts Against 77.0 78.7
Massey -4.2 (#244) -18.3 (#360)
Bradley-Terry -0.37 (#205) -3.32 (#356)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.05 (#242) -4.62 (#359)
RPI 0.476 (#218) 0.423 (#300)
Shooting & Four Factors MER CHST
FG% 46.0% 34.9%
3PT% 33.9% 29.4%
REB / G 33.7 33.1
OREB / G 10.4 10.6
AST / TO 1.03 0.68
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.4% 40.7%
TOV% 19.1% 19.3%
ORB% 29.1% 25.2%
FT Rate 19.2% 18.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.7% 55.1%
Opp TOV% 18.4% 17.6%
DRB% 67.9% 62.5%
Opp FT Rate 27.8% 30.5%

Game Analysis

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