Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -4000 PRES +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +19 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -10.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -8.2 (+10.8) | 142.9 (+26.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -6.5 (+12.5) | 142.1 (+26.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -6.7 (+12.3) | 143.1 (+25.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -9.5 (+9.5) | 139.8 (+29.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-10 | 8-5 |
| Away | 0-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#101) | -2.2 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#317) | -0.35 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#304) | -0.61 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#260) | 0.454 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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