Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Betty Engelstad Sioux Center · December 15, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UTSA -1.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Over
Money UND +110 / UTSA -130
Model Predictions
Spread Total UND win
Actual UTSA +10 180 Lost
Massey UND -1.0 (-11.0)
Massey Totals 156.6 (+23.4)
Bradley-Terry 49%
Weighted B-T 50%
Baseline Plus ML UND -2.1 (-12.1) 149.5 (+30.5) 52%
Baseline ML UND -1.8 (-11.8) 149.6 (+30.4) 54%
Baseline Tuned ML UND -1.6 (-11.6) 148.3 (+31.7) 55%
Efficiency Plus ML UND -1.7 (-11.7) 150.3 (+29.7) 50%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 14, 2024 UTSA 8076 UND

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UND UTSA
Overall 12-21 12-19
Conference 5-11 6-12
Home 9-6 7-7
Away 2-12 4-11
Neutral 1-3 1-1
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.3 74.4
Avg Pts Against 82.2 77.5
Massey -7.9 (#301) -4.6 (#251)
Bradley-Terry -1.13 (#268) -0.27 (#195)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.77 (#281) -0.87 (#231)
RPI 0.384 (#337) 0.483 (#208)
Shooting & Four Factors UND UTSA
FG% 39.4% 39.8%
3PT% 28.5% 30.8%
REB / G 38.6 34.9
OREB / G 15.0 12.4
AST / TO 0.78 0.74
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.0% 46.4%
TOV% 19.1% 19.2%
ORB% 36.1% 32.1%
FT Rate 22.3% 22.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.3% 52.4%
Opp TOV% 14.4% 19.7%
DRB% 71.1% 63.8%
Opp FT Rate 19.6% 31.0%

Game Analysis

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