Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UND +110 UTSA -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +10 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | UND -1.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -2.1 (-12.1) | 149.5 (+30.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UND -1.8 (-11.8) | 149.6 (+30.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -1.6 (-11.6) | 148.3 (+31.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -1.7 (-11.7) | 150.3 (+29.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | UTSA 80 – 76 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 77.5 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#301) | -4.6 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#268) | -0.27 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#281) | -0.87 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.384 (#337) | 0.483 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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