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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–14 on winners spread MAE 11.0 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Maryland Eastern Shore @ UConn +25.5 147.0 91% 45–99 ✓
San Diego State @ Houston +8.3 127.1 79% 73–70 ✗
Air Force @ Wright State +10.5 136.0 82% 57–70 ✓
Marist @ Lehigh +1.2 145.5 52% 69–74 ✓
Oakland @ Toledo +10.4 139.4 85% 85–52 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Eastern Michigan +6.3 134.3 73% 98–89 ✗
Arkansas State @ Rice -0.5 137.3 49% 67–75 ✗
Jacksonville @ Georgia +14.2 144.9 86% 56–102 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Pacific +2.9 135.7 62% 55–64 ✓
Kent State @ Kennesaw State -0.9 131.8 48% 67–60 ✓
Marshall @ Western Kentucky +4.3 140.5 67% 82–90 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Omaha +5.0 143.6 67% 71–55 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Sacramento State +10.0 128.2 81% 66–60 ✗
Utah Tech @ Portland State +5.8 148.5 72% 68–71 ✓
Lipscomb @ Alabama A&M -8.2 142.4 22% 82–44 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Southern Utah +4.1 143.0 69% 64–74 ✓
Kansas City @ Southeast Missouri State +4.5 139.3 67% 59–80 ✓
Oregon @ Alabama +2.7 158.0 64% 83–81 ✗
UC Davis @ Oregon State +14.4 132.9 87% 57–90 ✓
Cal Poly @ Stanford +8.5 149.6 79% 97–90 ✗
UC Irvine @ Towson -8.0 128.8 20% 67–60 ✓
Long Island University @ Niagara +0.3 140.7 52% 52–60 ✓
Maine @ Navy -6.4 140.7 26% 71–66 ✓
NJIT @ Massachusetts +11.4 140.2 86% 68–80 ✓
Alcorn State @ Maryland +26.9 137.6 91% 58–96 ✓
Norfolk State @ Stony Brook -7.4 140.6 23% 77–66 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Central Connecticut +4.9 142.3 69% 67–69 ✓
Radford @ Saint Francis +0.5 140.6 50% 79–70 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fairfield +6.1 142.9 72% 74–78 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Tennessee State +1.2 153.5 52% 92–74 ✗
New Hampshire @ Fordham +11.0 139.1 85% 61–83 ✓
Rice @ Iona -5.7 133.4 28% 70–66 ✓
Buffalo @ Penn State +23.6 156.9 91% 64–87 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Kansas State +20.7 154.0 91% 73–120 ✓
Binghamton @ Lafayette +8.0 131.9 75% 82–81 ✗
Elon @ Pennsylvania -7.6 140.2 22% 68–53 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Troy +4.6 141.6 69% 74–84 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Minnesota +6.4 127.8 74% 62–79 ✓
Missouri State @ Oral Roberts -2.8 150.5 36% 72–67 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ UAB +1.9 154.9 52% 76–69 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Stonehill +3.0 134.6 60% 74–88 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Boston University +4.9 137.5 68% 73–65 ✗
California Baptist @ UCF +7.2 154.7 76% 59–74 ✓
North Alabama @ Wofford +2.6 146.0 60% 54–74 ✓
North Florida @ Nebraska +10.5 150.6 80% 72–103 ✓
South Carolina State @ Xavier +14.7 139.9 87% 68–71 ✓
Arkansas State @ Hofstra -3.0 137.5 37% 66–68 ✗
Denver @ Portland +3.2 140.4 56% 90–101 ✓
Texas State @ Texas Southern -2.0 142.1 40% 72–59 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.