Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -34.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +47 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -27.3 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+33.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -26.6 (+20.4) | 149.5 (+43.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -24.6 (+22.4) | 151.9 (+41.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -20.7 (+26.3) | 154.0 (+39.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -23.8 (+23.2) | 154.8 (+38.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 4-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 85.7 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#119) | -18.8 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#71) | -2.55 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#68) | -3.82 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#57) | 0.390 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 59.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 56.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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