Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | CCSU +145 UML -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -7.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -2.5 (-0.5) | 140.8 (-4.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -4.9 (-2.9) | 142.3 (-6.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -5.2 (-3.2) | 142.2 (-6.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -5.2 (-3.2) | 143.0 (-7.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | CCSU 57 – 54 UML |
| Nov 17, 2021 | UML 77 – 53 CCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 6-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 12-3 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.1 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#226) | -5.0 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#231) | 0.40 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#251) | 0.47 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#256) | 0.535 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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