Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | WRST -410 AF +315 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WRST +13 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | WRST -13.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WRST -8.7 (+4.3) | 132.3 (-5.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -10.1 (+2.9) | 135.5 (-8.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WRST -10.5 (+2.5) | 136.0 (-9.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WRST -11.2 (+1.8) | 134.0 (-7.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WRST | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 1-19 |
| Home | 11-4 | 3-13 |
| Away | 3-12 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#122) | -5.0 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#97) | -2.28 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#83) | -2.92 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#49) | 0.381 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WRST | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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