Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -100000 SCST +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -16.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -16.1 (-13.1) | 141.6 (-2.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -14.7 (-11.7) | 138.2 (+0.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -14.7 (-11.7) | 139.9 (-0.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -16.4 (-13.4) | 142.3 (-3.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#97) | -6.7 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#58) | -1.05 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#59) | -1.95 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#69) | 0.415 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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