Betting Lines
| Spread | SAC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | SAC -380 MERC +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +6 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | SAC -16.4 (-22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAC -10.1 (-16.1) | 126.1 (-0.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAC -10.6 (-16.6) | 128.2 (-2.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAC -10.0 (-16.0) | 128.2 (-2.2) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAC -8.3 (-14.3) | 125.7 (+0.3) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-7 |
| Home | 5-11 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#172) | -11.2 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#260) | -1.45 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#268) | -2.62 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#239) | 0.464 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 25.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 61.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.3% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.