I'm going to Wichita, far from this opera for evermore. "Seven Nation Army" - The White Stripes
Houston Cougars
70 73 OT
FINAL Neutral Players Era Festival
San Diego State Aztecs
MGM Grand Garden Arena (Neutral) · December 1, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread HOU -13.5 Away covered
O/U 127.5 Over
Money HOU -1600 / SDSU +800
Model Predictions
Spread Total HOU win
Actual SDSU +3 143 Lost
Massey HOU -12.6 (-15.6)
Massey Totals 121.6 (+21.4)
Bradley-Terry 51%
Weighted B-T 55%
Baseline Plus ML HOU -10.4 (-13.4) 129.8 (+13.2) 79%
Baseline ML HOU -9.2 (-12.2) 129.9 (+13.1) 74%
Baseline Tuned ML HOU -8.3 (-11.3) 127.1 (+15.9) 79%
Efficiency Plus ML HOU -7.7 (-10.7) 125.2 (+17.8) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HOU SDSU
Overall 35-5 21-10
Conference 19-1 14-6
Home 16-1 12-3
Away 10-0 6-4
Neutral 9-4 3-3
Last 5 3-2 2-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 73.7 69.8
Avg Pts Against 58.6 65.2
Massey 20.1 (#7) 7.4 (#72)
Bradley-Terry 1.36 (#70) 1.33 (#74)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.49 (#64) 2.28 (#72)
RPI 0.564 (#73) 0.658 (#20)
Shooting & Four Factors HOU SDSU
FG% 45.8% 45.2%
3PT% 41.8% 36.1%
REB / G 38.0 33.8
OREB / G 13.0 7.0
AST / TO 1.72 1.13
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.5% 51.7%
TOV% 12.3% 17.0%
ORB% 35.3% 21.7%
FT Rate 21.8% 13.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 43.8% 44.7%
Opp TOV% 24.7% 15.4%
DRB% 72.5% 67.7%
Opp FT Rate 24.6% 24.6%

Game Analysis

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