Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | PENN +120 ELON -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +15 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | ELON -12.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -7.9 (-7.1) | 137.1 (-16.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -7.7 (-7.3) | 141.0 (-20.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -7.6 (-7.4) | 140.2 (-19.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -7.2 (-7.8) | 137.3 (-16.3) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#345) | 5.6 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#300) | 0.29 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#305) | 0.29 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#336) | 0.487 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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