Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -40.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +54 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -36.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -28.0 (+26.0) | 141.8 (+2.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -25.5 (+28.5) | 147.0 (-3.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -34.7 (+19.3) | 146.2 (-2.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -39.2 (+14.8) | 145.7 (-1.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2021 | CONN 72 – 63 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 2-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 5-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#34) | -17.9 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#185) | -3.48 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#132) | -4.87 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#263) | 0.371 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.97 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 11.7% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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