Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -550 CBU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +15 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -9.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-29.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -8.0 (+7.0) | 155.7 (-22.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -7.7 (+7.3) | 154.3 (-21.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -7.2 (+7.8) | 154.7 (-21.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -9.6 (+5.4) | 153.4 (-20.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#125) | -1.7 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#48) | -0.13 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#48) | 0.29 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#30) | 0.483 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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