Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -300 BING +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BING +1 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -12.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (+36.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -9.2 (-10.2) | 131.1 (+31.9) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -9.0 (-10.0) | 131.2 (+31.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -8.0 (-9.0) | 131.9 (+31.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -7.7 (-8.7) | 132.8 (+30.2) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | BING |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-14 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#232) | -10.3 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#229) | -2.23 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#248) | -3.11 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#210) | 0.335 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | BING |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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