Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +23 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -31.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -28.6 (-5.6) | 159.3 (-8.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -28.4 (-5.4) | 158.5 (-7.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -23.6 (-0.6) | 156.9 (-5.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -26.3 (-3.3) | 160.8 (-9.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#16) | -9.5 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#67) | -1.23 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#80) | -2.58 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#76) | 0.405 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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