Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ORST -600 UCD +430 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +33 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | ORST -14.9 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -16.0 (+17.0) | 134.0 (+13.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -13.5 (+19.5) | 133.0 (+14.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -14.4 (+18.6) | 132.9 (+14.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -13.4 (+19.6) | 135.2 (+11.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2023 | ORST 71 – 59 UCD |
| Dec 15, 2021 | UCD 71 – 64 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#62) | -0.6 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#102) | 0.82 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#90) | 0.72 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#148) | 0.562 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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