Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | ORST -2.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -1.4 (-8.4) | 141.2 (-6.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -0.5 (-7.5) | 140.9 (-5.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -0.7 (-7.7) | 141.0 (-6.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -4.0 (-11.0) | 138.8 (-3.8) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | ORST 90 – 57 UCD |
| Dec 1, 2023 | ORST 71 – 59 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 5-6 |
| Home | 3-13 | 7-5 |
| Away | 0-12 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L18 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#221) | -0.6 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#326) | 0.36 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#308) | -0.11 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#243) | 0.495 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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