He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
37–23 on winners spread MAE 9.3 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Georgia State @ Kentucky +24.0 156.9 91% 76–105 ✓
Seattle U @ Duke +19.8 141.6 90% 48–70 ✓
UNLV @ Northwestern +3.6 132.1 67% 61–66 ✓
North Florida @ SIU Edwardsville +2.8 146.5 63% 78–73 ✗
Le Moyne @ Manhattan +5.2 141.6 71% 81–77 ✗
Rice @ Hofstra +0.1 136.3 53% 63–68 ✓
Florida A&M @ Clemson +22.9 145.3 91% 58–86 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UL Monroe +2.8 126.3 52% 68–60 ✗
Towson @ Kennesaw State +2.3 136.9 62% 63–67 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Texas Tech +11.3 155.4 81% 64–89 ✓
Northwestern State @ LSU +12.9 141.9 87% 53–77 ✓
Davidson @ Gonzaga +17.1 157.0 90% 65–90 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Northern Iowa -4.0 138.3 34% 68–56 ✓
Delaware State @ Texas +24.1 142.5 91% 68–90 ✓
Butler @ Mississippi State +8.4 143.8 83% 87–77 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Arizona State -1.0 143.8 52% 64–68 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ UC Santa Barbara +23.9 134.6 91% 48–81 ✓
UC Irvine @ Kent State -4.7 127.2 34% 51–39 ✓
USC @ New Mexico +8.2 149.2 82% 73–83 ✓
Southern @ Louisiana Tech +13.8 146.3 87% 73–70 ✗
Colgate @ Sam Houston +3.9 137.0 70% 78–82 ✓
Monmouth @ Seton Hall +11.1 128.4 83% 63–51 ✗
Chicago State @ Wisconsin +24.5 145.8 91% 53–74 ✓
Creighton @ Notre Dame +1.3 142.6 60% 80–76 ✗
Campbell @ Green Bay +5.2 145.3 71% 72–66 ✗
Northeastern @ Vermont -2.4 130.6 38% 64–68 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Georgia Tech +10.2 149.5 82% 68–87 ✓
Western Carolina @ Marquette +24.2 146.9 91% 62–94 ✓
New Mexico State @ Bowling Green -2.9 137.8 41% 60–61 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Howard +4.2 143.3 62% 79–75 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ East Texas A&M -5.2 145.3 32% 77–57 ✓
Binghamton @ Long Island University +3.7 137.6 66% 75–70 ✗
Navy @ Elon +15.1 147.6 89% 63–69 ✓
Robert Morris @ Ohio +2.6 142.2 57% 68–84 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Coastal Carolina +10.3 145.6 81% 51–73 ✓
Iona @ Indiana State +5.6 144.8 76% 80–83 ✓
Milwaukee @ Southern Miss -1.7 149.6 41% 65–66 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Miami +15.5 148.7 87% 83–79 ✗
Delaware @ Rider +4.4 137.7 69% 72–66 ✗
Nicholls @ Louisiana -0.5 145.2 38% 76–75 ✓
App State @ UNC Wilmington +2.7 134.2 59% 61–76 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Montana State +1.5 149.2 49% 72–69 ✗
Texas A&M @ Rutgers -3.4 149.4 38% 81–77 ✓
Austin Peay @ East Tennessee State +7.0 134.0 75% 57–79 ✓
Houston Christian @ UTSA +7.1 143.3 75% 71–78 ✓
UAlbany @ Georgetown +7.9 137.7 76% 68–100 ✓
Temple @ La Salle +3.6 149.7 66% 75–83 ✓
Weber State @ Pepperdine +1.2 141.3 55% 68–53 ✗
Niagara @ Lafayette +6.2 140.8 71% 47–59 ✓
Maine @ Pennsylvania -8.6 138.3 19% 64–77 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +12.1 165.6 86% 74–109 ✓
Hofstra @ Tarleton State -9.2 130.9 20% 59–61 ✗
UC Riverside @ Idaho -1.6 143.5 39% 68–80 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Utah +20.0 150.2 90% 80–88 ✓
Harvard @ St. John's +21.6 145.0 91% 64–77 ✓
Furman @ Kansas +11.1 137.8 82% 51–86 ✓
Bellarmine @ Northern Kentucky +4.3 134.4 64% 70–86 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Drake +14.6 140.9 88% 47–61 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Florida Atlantic +10.3 146.2 81% 80–78 ✗
Siena @ Bucknell +2.1 141.2 62% 71–58 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.