Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -30.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +29 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | UK -31.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -27.1 (+1.9) | 156.1 (+24.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -28.0 (+1.0) | 155.6 (+25.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -24.0 (+5.0) | 156.9 (+24.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -26.2 (+2.8) | 161.8 (+19.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 22.1 (#5) | -4.1 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#20) | -0.37 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.40 (#14) | -1.00 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#29) | 0.470 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 46.5 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.02 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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