Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Cajundome · November 30, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UL -1.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money UL -125 / NICH +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total UL win
Actual NICH +1 151 Lost
Massey NICH -2.3 (+1.3)
Massey Totals 155.9 (-4.9)
Bradley-Terry 58%
Weighted B-T 60%
Baseline Plus ML NICH -0.1 (-0.9) 147.9 (+3.1) 42%
Baseline ML NICH -0.5 (-0.5) 146.7 (+4.3) 34%
Baseline Tuned ML NICH -0.5 (-0.5) 145.2 (+5.8) 38%
Efficiency Plus ML UL -0.8 (-1.8) 145.2 (+5.8) 43%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UL NICH
Overall 12-21 20-13
Conference 8-10 13-7
Home 5-12 11-4
Away 6-5 8-8
Neutral 1-4 1-1
Last 5 0-5 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.9 72.0
Avg Pts Against 73.3 71.7
Massey -12.3 (#346) -4.3 (#244)
Bradley-Terry -3.01 (#347) -2.29 (#327)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.17 (#344) -3.32 (#325)
RPI 0.453 (#261) 0.437 (#281)
Shooting & Four Factors UL NICH
FG% 41.7% 35.9%
3PT% 34.1% 32.6%
REB / G 27.2 41.6
OREB / G 8.3 14.2
AST / TO 1.13 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.3% 42.6%
TOV% 16.6% 16.1%
ORB% 24.3% 32.0%
FT Rate 19.7% 14.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 57.0% 46.9%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 12.2%
DRB% 57.9% 68.2%
Opp FT Rate 38.6% 29.1%

Game Analysis

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