The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
Mississippi State Bulldogs
77 87
FINAL Neutral Arizona Tip-Off
Butler Bulldogs
Mullett Arena (Neutral) · November 30, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MSST -8.5 Away covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money MSST -425 / BUT +320
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSST win
Actual BUT +10 164 Lost
Massey MSST -10.5 (-20.5)
Massey Totals 147.2 (+16.8)
Bradley-Terry 94%
Weighted B-T 97%
Baseline Plus ML MSST -7.0 (-17.0) 144.5 (+19.5) 77%
Baseline ML MSST -7.2 (-17.2) 145.1 (+18.9) 73%
Baseline Tuned ML MSST -8.4 (-18.4) 143.8 (+20.2) 83%
Efficiency Plus ML MSST -7.8 (-17.8) 146.8 (+17.2) 80%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSST BUT
Overall 21-13 15-20
Conference 8-10 6-14
Home 10-5 9-8
Away 6-5 2-9
Neutral 5-3 4-3
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 79.5 74.7
Avg Pts Against 74.2 74.9
Massey 17.9 (#13) 7.4 (#74)
Bradley-Terry 3.69 (#11) 1.01 (#93)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.55 (#11) 2.07 (#79)
RPI 0.672 (#16) 0.583 (#63)
Shooting & Four Factors MSST BUT
FG% 46.4% 46.2%
3PT% 34.3% 40.6%
REB / G 40.2 38.7
OREB / G 14.2 10.0
AST / TO 2.13 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.6% 54.8%
TOV% 12.3% 20.7%
ORB% 35.4% 34.5%
FT Rate 21.9% 39.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.6% 40.1%
Opp TOV% 22.6% 12.2%
DRB% 73.2% 69.1%
Opp FT Rate 24.9% 16.9%

Game Analysis

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