Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -425 BUT +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUT +10 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -10.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -7.0 (-17.0) | 144.5 (+19.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -7.2 (-17.2) | 145.1 (+18.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -8.4 (-18.4) | 143.8 (+20.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -7.8 (-17.8) | 146.8 (+17.2) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | BUT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#13) | 7.4 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.69 (#11) | 1.01 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.55 (#11) | 2.07 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.672 (#16) | 0.583 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | BUT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.13 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 39.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 40.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 12.2% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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