I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
The Thunderdome · November 30, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UCSB -31.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCSB win
Actual UCSB +33 129 Won
Massey UCSB -34.3 (-1.3)
Massey Totals 131.2 (-2.2)
Bradley-Terry 92%
Weighted B-T 95%
Baseline Plus ML UCSB -36.3 (-3.3) 131.5 (-2.5) 91%
Baseline ML UCSB -33.7 (-0.7) 136.0 (-7.0) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML UCSB -23.9 (+9.1) 134.6 (-5.6) 91%
Efficiency Plus ML UCSB -25.1 (+7.9) 130.8 (-1.8) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCSB MVSU
Overall 21-13 3-28
Conference 11-9 1-17
Home 12-5 2-9
Away 7-7 1-19
Neutral 2-1 0-0
Last 5 4-1 0-5
Streak L1 L9
Avg Pts For 73.2 52.4
Avg Pts Against 69.4 82.3
Massey 5.8 (#84) -22.8 (#364)
Bradley-Terry -0.01 (#181) -1.35 (#289)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.19 (#192) -1.85 (#278)
RPI 0.483 (#204) 0.497 (#172)
Shooting & Four Factors UCSB MVSU
FG% 49.8% 34.6%
3PT% 38.9% 23.0%
REB / G 37.6 25.3
OREB / G 8.4 6.7
AST / TO 1.13 0.40
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 59.2% 37.5%
TOV% 19.7% 27.5%
ORB% 28.8% 20.4%
FT Rate 25.3% 17.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.8% 59.3%
Opp TOV% 14.9% 13.3%
DRB% 73.7% 57.7%
Opp FT Rate 18.0% 35.1%

Game Analysis

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