Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -31.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +33 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -34.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -36.3 (-3.3) | 131.5 (-2.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -33.7 (-0.7) | 136.0 (-7.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -23.9 (+9.1) | 134.6 (-5.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -25.1 (+7.9) | 130.8 (-1.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 1-17 |
| Home | 12-5 | 2-9 |
| Away | 7-7 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 52.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 82.3 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#84) | -22.8 (#364) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#181) | -1.35 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#192) | -1.85 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#204) | 0.497 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 34.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 23.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 25.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 37.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 27.5% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 57.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 35.1% |
Game Analysis
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