Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -250 USC +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -11.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -8.7 (+1.3) | 148.7 (+7.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -8.1 (+1.9) | 150.2 (+5.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -8.2 (+1.8) | 149.2 (+6.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -8.1 (+1.9) | 148.7 (+7.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#41) | -0.1 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#66) | 0.92 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#61) | 1.59 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#95) | 0.530 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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