Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | AMCC -1250 PV +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMCC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMCC +35 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -14.7 (+20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 181.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -14.0 (+21.0) | 166.4 (+16.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -12.4 (+22.6) | 168.2 (+14.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -12.1 (+22.9) | 165.6 (+17.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMCC -13.8 (+21.2) | 163.9 (+19.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMCC | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 3-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#176) | -9.5 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#225) | -2.09 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#202) | -2.99 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#288) | 0.398 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMCC | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 56.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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